Model whether your retirement savings will last by testing withdrawal rates against your nest egg, expected returns, and time horizon. It flags sequence-of-returns risk and shows the year-by-year balance trajectory so you can adjust your plan before it is too late.

Retirement Calculator

Timeline
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Savings & Contributions
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Retirement Income
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Results Summary
Years to Retirement30
Retirement Nest Egg$1,015,810
In Today's Dollars$418,500
Total Contributions$180,000
Investment Growth$785,810
Monthly Withdrawal$3,386
+ Social Security$2,000
+ Pension$0
Total Monthly Income$5,386
Desired Income$6,000
Monthly Shortfall$614

Funds Last Through Retirement

Retirement Breakdown
Fund Sustainability

How This Calculator Works

Retirement planning projects how long a savings balance lasts given a starting amount, an expected investment return, and a monthly withdrawal rate. The core tension is between withdrawing enough to live on and withdrawing little enough that the balance is not exhausted early — especially during market downturns in the first few years of retirement (sequence-of-returns risk). This calculator models the standard 4% rule, adjusts for inflation, and shows the year-by-year balance trajectory so you can see when a chosen withdrawal rate becomes unsustainable. It also tracks the total income you would receive and the remaining balance at a chosen end age.

The Mathematical Formula & Logic

Balance_next year = Balance × (1 + realReturn) − Withdrawal, where realReturn = nominalReturn − inflation. The initial withdrawal = Balance × withdrawalRate, then rises by inflation each year in nominal terms. The portfolio is sustainable when the balance never falls below zero across the modeled horizon; total income = the sum of all withdrawals.

Worked Step-by-Step Example

A $750,000 portfolio at a 7% nominal return and 3% inflation (4% real return) using a 4% initial withdrawal takes $30,000 in year one. In real terms the balance stays positive for roughly 30 years, totaling about $1.0M of lifetime withdrawals. Raising the withdrawal to 6% ($45,000/year) draws the balance down significantly faster, exhausting it well within 20 years despite the same return assumptions.

Frequently Asked Questions

The 4% rule suggests withdrawing 4% of your starting portfolio in year one, then adjusting that dollar amount for inflation annually. Historically this has lasted about 30 years across most market conditions, though it is a guideline, not a guarantee.

Bad market returns early in retirement hurt far more than the same returns later, because withdrawals from a shrinking balance lock in losses. A lower initial withdrawal and a cash buffer reduce this risk.

Inflation forces you to withdraw more nominal dollars each year to keep the same buying power, which drains the balance faster. Always model returns in real (inflation-adjusted) terms to see true sustainability.

A common target is 25× your expected annual spending, which supports a 4% withdrawal rate. Your number depends on spending, Social Security, other income, and how long you want the portfolio to last.

Disclaimer: CompelKit tools and calculators are provided for educational and estimation purposes only and do not constitute certified legal, financial, or tax advice.

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